This escalation panicking local industrialists

The shock was not held. When economists announced in mid-August, the Japanese GDP was less than the second quarter to one generated on the same period, by China, Tokyo remained marble. Some Japanese officials and experts were well recognized at then that their country was to surrender to China, in 2010, the title of second world economic power it held for more than thirty years, but they immediately pointed to the mechanical statistical curve evolution and recalled with insistence that their GDP per capita, measured in 39.731 $, remained ten foix higher than their Communist neighbor. Even in the most critical Japanese media, the symbolism of this upheaval of the world economic ranking has not generated a real debate. The daily arrival in convoys of buses of wealthy Chinese tourists in Tokyo's Ginza district luxury boutiques calls person.

Ten years ago, Japan's economic power, feared in the West in the 1980s, but was still more than two times higher than that of China. The experts then bet on a "Chinese catch-up" in the year 2015 or 2020. The 2008 financial crisis, which plunged the Japan in the recession, and the rudeness of Chinese growth doped kicked of bank credit by the party, have accelerated their scenarios without actually move the Japanese elite, that seem increasingly more tours on themselves and not have engaged, in recent years, the reflections or sites that would have allowed their countries to defend, at least a time, his second place on the podium. As its many predecessors before him had done, Naoto Kan, the current Prime Minister, is to propose, to the country of its doldrums, an umpteenth plan stimulus mixing a timid monetary easing policy and a few public expenditure limited by the huge debt of the country - waves estimated at 10,000 billion, it is equivalent to 200 of GDP - without daring to initiate real reflection on economic identity. Faced with the ageing of its population, the country has still not decided if he wished to develop a society to the European where a comprehensive social welfare system would be managed by heavy and expensive in the medium term governmental structures or opt for a more minimalist and efficient American model.

The September 14 organization of critical internal elections in the Democratic Party of the Japan (YPD), who leads the country for only a year after decades of conservative domination, could provide an opportunity to revive these questions. The head of the Government will face for the Presidency of Ichiro Ozawa, one of the most Machiavellian political training of the country. The winner of the duel in the majority formation will naturally take the direction of the next Government and could theoretically reinventing the strategy for reform of the nation.

But, since that they are entered in the field, at the beginning of week, with members of their group and small local party cadres, who will vote on September 14, the two men apparently opted for a more classic clash concentrated on the traditional evils of the country. They thus conscientiously promised to fight against the aging of the population and the drama of deflation. Bet on a continuing fall in prices, Japanese households continue to delay their purchases and have forced companies to engage with endless promotional campaigns on their profits. The two men were also assured that they would fight against the soaring yen, which appears as the most pressing challenges of the archipelago.

Despite a growth in berne, interest rates near zero and a depressed stock market, the yen continues in effect to appreciate and weigh on the performance of the export sector, remaining with consumption, one of the main drivers of Japanese growth. Last week, the Japanese currency reached its highest level of the last 15 years against the dollar and beat new records against the euro. Investors, who fear a deterioration of the situation in the United States and Europe, continue to invest in the yen, which appears in part by the surplus of the Japanese balance of payments, as a safe haven. This escalation panicking local industrialists. Toyota estimated that he lost 30 billion yen (350 million dollars) each time that the national currency is gaining a yen against the greenback - yesterday 1 dollar worth more than 85 yen.

Focusing a part of their campaign on this malaise, Naoto Kan and Ichiro Ozawa announced that they emploieraient "all means possible" to bring down the value of the yen. But these shocks statements have not moved markets, aware that the Japanese Executive was almost more taken on its currency. To initiate a significant drop in its currency, the Central Bank should not only sell massively of the yen on the markets, but also convince other international investors to follow its strategy. The scenario seems unlikely as the United States and the European Union seem reluctant to tolerate a higher prices of their own currencies in this period of doubt.

Face in the sterile fighting of its leaders who always pretend to ignore these international constraints and focus on the accumulation of positions, public opinion, which had hoped for a revival of the policy by voting last year for the Democratic Party of the Japan, seems resigned and is now reduced to bet on the survival time of its first Ministers. If Ichiro Ozawa won the Presidency of the DPJ on September 14 - it is very unpopular in the population, but has a strong network of support in the political formation - it would become the sixth Prime Minister of the country since the departure of Junichiro Koizumi in September 2006.