These comments have already weighed on prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has chosen to be optimistic. Yesterday, it was once again revised downwards its forecast for world demand for oil for 2008 and 2009. But it has still maintained a scenario of growth for next year. According to the institution, world oil demand expected to decline this year for the first time since 1983. The Organization, which defends the interests of industrialized countries, table on a decline in global consumption of oil by 1.8 this quarter and 0.2 on the whole of 2008, 85.8 million barrels per day. A hypothesis related to a decrease in demand of 3.3 in the countries of the OECD, especially in America, where consumption has been reduced by 1 million barrels a day within a year.

In 2009, the application should however start to grow to $ 86.3 million barrels per day, believes the Organization, which rely on recovery laid down in the second half of 2009 by the international monetary Fund (IMF). A point of view in complete opposition with that of the US administration, which relies on a decrease of 450,000 barrels per day of production in 2009. "Our current scenario is based on a strength of the application outside the OECD countries, despite lower growth in the last five years", says the IEA in its monthly report. The organization is betting on a growth in demand of about 300,000 barrels per day in China to 100,000 barrels per day in India next year.

Some oil tankers are more optimistic. In the worst scenario, Total example contemplates a growth in demand of 400,000 barrels per day in China, which would cushion the decline in European and American markets. "We need China's economic recovery, even if its effect will be slower to be felt, because it will be linked to the domestic market rather than to the growth of exports," says the CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie. For the pattern in the oil group, ideally that prices go back "gently" to 80-90 dollars per barrel to encourage investment in projects of exploration and to avoid a new crisis in a few years.

To achieve this objective, a key factor will be the attitude of OPEC. "We need the OPEC to calm", says Christophe de Margerie. The cartel is to meet December 17 at Oran (Algeria) to decide on a further reduction of its production. Analysts on average expect a decline of 2 million barrels per day. The reduction of October (1.5 million barrels) seems to have been met at height of two-thirds.

But the heavy weight of the Organization, Saudi Arabia, seems determined to go further. Yesterday, the Minister of oil in the Kingdom, Ali al-Naimi, said that the country had produced 8.49 million barrels per day in November, reaching a close enough level of theoretical quota of 8.47 million. These comments have already weighed on prices. Yesterday in London, a barrel of North Sea brent was 4.57 dollars at the end of meeting, 46,97 $, while in New York the price of the "light sweet crude" for delivery in January was exchanged 47,98 dollars, an increase of $ 4.46.