the strongest since the beginning of the 1970s

The world has known, in 2006, "the period of expansion (...)". "the strongest since the beginning of the 1970s". Raghuram Rajan, Chief Economist of the international monetary Fund (IMF) at the time, had not hidden his satisfaction in Singapore, in September, in commenting on the Fund which forecast gross domestic product (GDP) world would grow this year by 5.1, after 4.9 in 2004. Better, through the strengthening of economic activity in the Japan and in Europe, not to mention the contribution in the large emerging countries such as China, the India, the Brazil, the Russia and the oil producing countries, including the outbreak of the black gold has largely fueled public funds, a certain rebalancing operated between major economic areas. In short, the United States were not the only world locomotive.

More expensive credit

Of this generalized economic consolidation which is accompanied by inflationary tensions arising from inflation in the price of raw materials, central banks have tightened credit conditions. In the United States, first, where the Fed, under the leadership of its new successor to Alan Greenspan, Chairman Ben Bernanke, has continued its policy of rates started as early as June 2004. Before a break since last June. Indeed, strong us growth has begun to show signs of slowing in the second half in view of the shortness of the real estate market. The other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank conducted 5 increases its rate guidelines, considering the economic strengthening of the euro area sufficient to support a less accommodative policy. And this despite the firming, year of the single currency against the dollar. Even in the Japan, the Central Bank ended, on 14 July, its policy of zero rates.

These monetary policies are accompanied by a financial remedy. In the United States, with significant tax revenues, the deficit was reduced to the lowest since 2002, 248 billion (1.9 of GDP). Same trend in the euro area where many countries, France and Germany, restated their own accounts. Both, and that the excessive deficit procedure opened against the France in 2003 was repealed in November last year, the Germany to know the same rehabilitation soon. Fact remains that these adjustments are more to an increase in revenues to a real reduction in spending. To the chagrin of the IMF and the OECD but they urged to carry out a structural adjustment.

Too slow reforms

Slow, or even the absence of these reforms, in the eyes of these international institutions, a danger for the future. Because risks remain. In addition to the fragility of public accounts, the growing gap between the United States and China on the commercial plan is another. On the one hand, the appetite for consumption of Americans hollow the deficit of the United States while China, driven by exports, continues to earn foreign currency reserves. Claimed for a long time, the revaluation of the Chinese yuan, according to the Bush administration, would allow a rebalancing of trade, yet was postponed.

In total, 2006 has been a good vintage in economic terms. Despite the deadlock of talks within the World Trade Organization to further liberalize trade. And the Feast was not marred by the escalation of the price of oil that feared both economists. But in the future, nothing says that a deterioration of the situation in the Middle East will not be called barrel pressure, given the economy took off in China and the India, to remain at high levels.