At this level the Bank would be valued 1

The structure. "Complex". It is a word that is often in the mouth of the managers for the new set. With two major banking networks shareholders, a floating quite limited (19 of the capital), cooperative investment certificates and governance to loitering, Natixis rout some investors, in particular Anglo-Saxon. "There is necessarily a time for learning, but the previous agricultural credit his cheek in their favour", qualifies an analyst. The "history" of Natixis indeed presents some similarities with Casa, introduced on the stock market just five years ago. Before really attract major investors, the course of the Green Bank had lanterné for eighteen months. "Mayonnaise eventually take, continues the analyst. It is perhaps also the time it will take to Natixis to convince.

The wholesale Bank. The creation of Natixis is based first on the approximation of two banks financing and investment (BFI) very complementary. A (Natexis) is primarily focused on fundraising, the other (Ixis) on the capital markets activities. "In view of the complementarity of the trades of the two investment banks, the potential of cross-selling and sales combined to feed the two networks is very important", noted Stéphane Cadieu, Manager in Federal Finance. Many however stigmatize lesser (12 RoE) profitability of the Bank of Natixis wholesale from its French competitors, while it dominates half of own funds. And they wonder if the timing of the merger is appropriate. "I fear that the time is not ideal, concerned an analyst.". "Calyon rises, competition is strong between the large French BFI, is on trades that seem to arrive at the top of cycle".

The Bank of detail. Retail banking is also an important place in the operation. It should provide, directly or not, 38 of the benefits of the new set. But the quarterly results that come from publish BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Credit Agricole SA show a compression of the margins in retail banking due to unfavourable changes in interest rates. In addition, "they have a weak point that is the absence of the Caisses d'Epargne assurance platform, as it is housed in Ecureuil life, now in the hands of CNP Assurances, note Nicolas Rutsaert, Dexia Asset Management." "However, bancassurance is one of the strengths of Credit Agricole SA".

Asset management. 534 Billion euros of assets under management, Natixis is situated ranks first in France, and 13th in the world. "Asset management is one of the activities happening in presentations best," notes an investor who attended the "roadshows". Analysts however point to the relatively low in the new set, margin of the order of 27 basis points, which takes the weight of assets managed on behalf of CNP Assurances and the weight of the stocks invested in the monetary and bonds (about 60).

The objectives. The objectives announced by Natixis for 2010 are considered "reasonable", "careful", or "not quite ambitious." "There is a large deposit of improvement of profitability," recognizes Stéphane Cadieu. The group is an average annual growth of 10 of its net proceeds banking, a coefficient of operation reduced to 60, a "close" to 16 RoE, and an average annual growth rate of about 13 of the net. "It promises many things, but the flow of news is not very rich in the first months." "It must also be patient," says Stéphane Cadieu. Objectives of synergies 298 million euros of revenue synergies and 224 million by 2010 cost synergies, they were disappointed a number of specialists. "It seems to me that these objectives are deliberately very cautious and that they could be achieved with 12 months in advance", slips an analyst.

Upgrading. Many managers wish that the price of the investment does not exceed 20 euros. "We know that the transfers of assets of Caisses d'Epargne has been made at a price equivalent to 19,551 euros by title." "We should not make the placement at a price too remote", launches Stéphane Cadieu. On average, analysts are "value of balance" of 23 euros for Natixis horizon 12 months, which corresponds to a capitalization of 28.3 billion euros. At this level, the Bank would be valued 1.5 times its book value, from 1.83 times for the average of the other French banks. "But this haircut would be justified by the lower profitability of the new set and the complexity of its structure," said an analyst. A placement at 20 euros would leave so a good margin of appreciation for the title.

The entrance to the CAC 40. It is a bet that would take investors: rely on next entry in the CAC 40, which would result in a wave of purchases on the part of the index managers. Natixis will rise to at the outset of the first 20 caps in France. But with two handicaps before him: a floating fairly narrow and a strong representation in the banking sector in the reference index. "If another financial group had to leave the rating following a market AGF or Dexia e.g. , Natixis would make a good"outsider"to enter the CAC 40, said one of them.". But today I would not make such bet. "As the Scientific Council of the indices is used to examine transactions a year before making his choice". Credit Agricole SA had to wait eight months before its entry into the spotlight index.