4 of GDP expected this year a growth of 2

It is by no means be acquired that the measures announced last week by Nicolas Sarkozy to reduce the deficits are sufficient to reassure Brussels. Mid March, the European Commission had severely questioned the objective of the French Government to bring its public deficit to 3 of GDP in 2013 in its stability programme. She then gave to 2 June in Paris for reduction of expenditure implemented concrete measures to achieve this. "The speech of the head of State and the statement of conclusions of the second Conference on deficits bring the answer", explains - tone at Bercy. Constitutional rules, upcoming 100,000 striking positions of public servants, limited to Medicare spending growth, etc. are part of arsenal announced by the France ("Les Echos" from May 21-22).

Resurgence of inflation

But, to restore its finances, Paris table on a rapid and strong crisis exit: after an increase of 1.4 of GDP expected this year, a growth of 2.5 is expected for 2011 to 2013. Even ambitious, our goal for 2011 is entirely plausible", indicates in the entourage of the economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, by putting forward the positive effect of the decline of the euro. The Germany, it, yet table 2 per cent growth per year. "But we have a little higher potential growth for demographic reasons," said an advisor.

Economists are few in the French belief, as evidenced by the last Consensus Forecast, which updates each month forecast from about 20 of them. Made from data collected prior to publication by Insee of growth almost zero ( 0.1) in the first quarter, the panel table on average over an increase in GDP of 1.5 in 2010 and 1.6 "only" in 2011. This performance would be higher than that of the euro area this year ( 1.1) but almost identical the year following ( 1.5).

Showing a distinct lack of visibility, forecasts are the large gap, Goldman Sachs bet on 2.6 growth in 2011 when Natixis is among the most pessimistic ( 1.1). "Before the end of the year, the pension reform will be unveiled and the labour market will r. etourné, which frees up the high level of the French precautionary savings and will allow a resumption of consumption", view the Natacha Valla, an economist at Goldman Sachs, which is also the assumption of a restart of the business investment. At Natixis, Jean-Christophe Caffet said instead that "domestic demand remain permanently low with the end of the support measures in consumption and an increase in wages, in a context marked by a sensitive renewed inflation".

All questioned the impact of rigorous plans put in place in Europe. "They will sustainably amputate the growth potential by weighing on domestic demand of many trading partners," says Jean-Christophe Caffet. Optimistic until 2011, Goldman Sachs questions on the following years. "If Paris decides to raise taxes to keep its deficit targets, this will place a risk on growth", warns Natacha Valla.

In their report on public finances, Jean-Philippe Cotis and Paul Champsaur hold an intermediate scenario according to which the France would "not recover in part the lost ground during the crisis", with growth of 2 per year, starting in 2011. Initially, the France had indicated in its stability programme in the assumption of growth limited to 2.25 between 2011 and 2013, the return of the deficit to 3 of GDP would be postponed to 2014. But since then, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon undertook to scrupulously keep the objectives of reduction of the deficit.