The two agencies also may again follow Fitch

The decision was radical. The international rating agency Fitch yesterday took a decision of unusual violence by lowering debt note six notches at once only BP long term. The Agency did take note of "aa" to "BBB", the latter term designating the "transmitters of average quality" but able to meet their obligations to adequately. The note of BP remains two levels above the "junk bonds".

The rating agency had already lowered a notch this June 3, the passing of "AA " to "AA". Moody's and Standard & Poor's had engaged, and brought their own notes "aa2" to the first, "aa" - for the second. The two agencies also may again follow Fitch.

This new rating will significantly increase the cost of borrowing by the tanker. It has already been down the course of the British tanker of 3.78 to 342 pence yesterday, even as it was prior to the announcement of this degradation, up 0.6 on the London Stock Exchange.

Fitch justifies its decision by the revision to the increase in the volume of oil rejected every day at sea. According to the latest estimates of American scientists, the magnitude of the leak was in the range of 20,000 to 40,000 barrels oil equivalent per day beginning June. What increase the extent of the compensation to be paid by the British tanker at the end of the oil spill.

New degradation

Fitch is concerned also about the impact of the recent requirements of the American authorities. They wish that the tanker place "important are" accounts receivers to provide funding for cleaning the oil spill and compensation. Monday, democratic representatives in the Senate demanded that the group put $ 20 billion into a fund administered by a third party.

In this context, the rating agency indicates that it would be "surprised" If the tanker was not suspending payment of quarterly dividends. A view shared by other observers. "If BP were to accede to this request, this would be BP debt 27 and would probably result in the suspension of the dividend until at least the end of the year," said Barclays Capital.

In early June, the leaders of the Group had indicated that they wished to maintain the rate of indebtedness of the tanker to the lowest of a range of 20 to 30.

Fitch said think not that the black tide will lead to BP "a worse scenarios u", as the bankruptcy of some parts of its activity, but does no new damage if the financial obligations of the Group were reviewed upward or BP access to capital was to deteriorate.

The Agency classifies the possible impact of the spill on BP in four categories. It evaluates the immediate costs of cleaning and compensation between 3 to 6 billion. Civil fines could cost BP 2 and 8 billion while the increase in operating costs is estimated to be $ 1.4 billion. The costs associated with trials of longer breath could they be spread over many years, the image of what had happened in the case of the "Exxon Valdez".

The British tanker has levers important to deal with all these constraints. BP has $ 5 billion in cash and policies facilitated credit of approximately $ 5.5 billion. Its activity should generate the order of 6 billion of cash flow in 2010 according to Fitch.