Its success was before all political and media

The results of the meeting of the g-20 were anticipated. Its success was before all political and media. Few important decisions have been taken involving the future, be it the very short term and the coordination of the reminders of the economy and the financial sector, the medium term and the exit from the crisis, or the long term and the reform of the financial regulation. The final release is similar to a form with lots of dots to complete.

A few remarks revealed the nature of these dots, i.e. issues that it preferred not ask and refer to "later". Some have raised the excitement. It is thus of observation of the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, on the creation of a new international reserve currency, the only Chinese proposal which has not taken over in the final communiqué.

From the Chinese point of view, the problem is clear. With $ 1 trillion of reserve including a very large part in American securities, China may fear turmoil in out of the crisis. The credibility of a US State more heavily indebted externally that it will have been more than fifty years can be initiated, jeopardizing the international monetary system and the value of the dollar reserves. Reduce the debt burden will require either a tax effort, likely to break the resumption, either an acceleration of inflation and the depreciation of the dollar to gradually reduce the real value of debt. For the China, on the one hand, it is important that the signing of the United States Treasury was not deteriorating and that be avoided a crisis of confidence in the US paper, on the other hand found the global economy growth satisfactory, and that is conserved some parity between the yuan and the dollar under sentence to see his model of development in question. Avoid these eddies on the dollar is what drives the proposal of an alternative international monetary vehicle.

However, it is unlikely that such an initiative savings problem in China. A large part of the difficulty has indeed itself. Before the outbreak of the crisis, analysts highlighted the risks associated with the "global economic imbalances" that the US external deficit and China's surplus. An important question was whether what would happen if Asian savings was more to it the need for American funding. In fact, the output of crisis, when it will be held, and the debt that will accompany it may put the economic bodies Chinese at the foot of the wall. A constraint of the world economy is that the external surplus of a country must be absorbed by the deficit of another. If China keeps its model of development based on exports and the frugality of consumption, it may have difficulty in placing his savings on world markets without risk to the world, and herself, a new shock monetary and financial.

The creation of a new world reserve currency would reduce this risk Nothing is less sure. The amount of deficits and national external surplus must be zero at the world and a Chinese savings glut destabilize the global economy regardless of the monetary system in force. There are only two solutions. Either new credible and reliable borrowers will appear, but which Or China should change its model of development by reducing the weight of the exports of domestic consumption and imports. This may be done by a significant currency appreciation or by measures encouraging companies to distribute a greater share of their added value to their employees and households to consume.

The situation of the world economy is now too delicate to be able to consider a reform of the international monetary system. The concern drilling under the suggestion of the Chinese President create or re-create a new reserve currency shows that the system is more fragile than it seems. In fine, but it seems that the solution will reside largely in development strategy that retain China.